KAMPALA / NAIROBI In response to President Yoweri Museveni’s warnings of a possible war with Kenya over access to the Indian Ocean, leading political analysts argue that Uganda does not have the military capacity to confront Kenyan forces.
Museveni, speaking recently, framed the issue as not only economic but strategic: landlocked Uganda, he said, should have access to the ocean "not only for economic purposes but also for defence purposes.”
But analysts see his hawkish rhetoric as misaligned with Uganda’s realities. Mark Bichachi, a political analyst, noted that Uganda does not have a navy and is ill-equipped to mount a maritime challenge. “Which navy will Museveni use to challenge Kenya? It has no military capacity at sea to speak of Kenya has more personnel and equipment.”
Bichachi also raised practical logistical concerns: as a landlocked country, Uganda depends heavily on foreign ports for its imports and exports. If conflict were to erupt, he argues, Kampala’s supply lines would be heavily disrupted.
Lawyer and analyst Philip Mwangale weighed in, questioning Uganda’s legal grounds for its claims. “Uganda has no legitimate or legal claim of ownership to the Ocean,” he said. “Those were just rantings … Kenya only owns a stretch of the Ocean within our maritime border.”
The Kenyan government has largely downplayed Museveni’s warnings. According to Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, Nairobi remains committed to peaceful diplomacy and adherence to international territorial law.
Meanwhile, Uganda appears to be treading a contradictory path. A day after Museveni’s remarks, a delegation from the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) visited Kenya for a military benchmarking mission. The delegation, led by Major General Francis Takirwa, toured Kenyan defense facilities to learn about welfare systems, veterans’ care, and post-service support suggesting cooperation, not confrontation.
Taken together, the analysts’ assessments point to a broader conclusion: while Museveni’s talk of war may strike a nationalistic chord, Uganda’s military particularly its lack of maritime capacity, funding shortfalls, and logistical constraints makes any real confrontation with Kenya highly unlikely.